Effects of Track and Threat Information on Judgments of Hurricane Strike Probability

Although evacuation is one of the best strategies for protecting citizens from hurricane threat, the ways that local elected officials use hurricane data in deciding whether to issue hurricane evacuation orders is not well understood. To begin to address this problem, we examined the effects of hurricane track and intensity information in a laboratory setting where participants judged the probability that hypothetical hurricanes with a constant bearing (i.e., straight line forecast track) would make landfall in each of eight 45 degree sectors around the Gulf of Mexico. The results from 162 participants in a student sample showed that the judged strike probability distributions over the eight sectors within each scenario were, unsurprisingly, unimodal and centered on the sector toward which the forecast track pointed. More significantly, although strike probability judgments for the sector in the direction of the forecast track were generally higher than the corresponding judgments for the other sectors, the latter were not zero. Most significantly, there were no appreciable differences in the patterns of strike probability judgments for hurricane tracks represented by a forecast track only, an uncertainty cone only, or forecast track with an uncertainty cone—a result consistent with a recent survey of coastal residents threatened by Hurricane Charley. The study results suggest that people are able to correctly process basic information about hurricane tracks but they do make some errors. More research is needed to understand the sources of these errors and to identify better methods of displaying uncertainty about hurricane parameters.     

The Effect of Board of Directors’ IT Awareness on CIO Compensation and Firm Performance

Chief information officers (CIOs) play increasingly strategic roles in firms in this competitive global economy, which is now largely powered by information technology (IT). However, research has shown a lack of board of directors’ oversight on CIO‐ and IT‐related issues. Drawing on agency, resource dependence, and alignment theories, we investigate the effect of board of directors’ IT awareness on CIO compensation structure and firm performance. We conduct cross‐sectional time series analyses of data collected from various sources. Our study underlines three important findings. First, we show that some commonly known executive compensation determinants, such as individual characteristics and governance structure, do not have significant effects on CIO compensation structure. Second, with regard to CIO compensation structure, firms respond to increasing information asymmetry differently according to the level of IT awareness of their boards. Finally, firms perform better when their boards have higher levels of IT awareness, and this positive effect of IT awareness is considerably larger in IT intensive industries. Overall, our study provides empirical support for the important role of boards’ IT awareness in shaping CIO compensation and improving firm performance. Our results suggest that boards with functional area knowledge—or higher IT awareness in this case—can more effectively monitor and better incentivize executives, and consequently lead to better firm performance.     

A 25-year perspective on levels of analysis in leadership research

The purpose of this article is to present a comprehensive 25-year review of the incorporation of levels of analysis into conceptual and empirical leadership research published within Leadership Quarterly throughout its history. We assessed the population of Leadership Quarterly's research (790 research articles) on four key levels of analysis-based issues: (1) explicit statement of the focal level(s) of analysis; (2) appropriate measurement given level of constructs; (3) use of a multi-level data analysis technique; and, (4) alignment of theory and data. Prior reviews regarding levels of analysis incorporation into leadership research have been limited to major research domains. Results revealed that while both conceptual and empirical articles only explicitly state the focal level of analysis in approximately one-third of the articles, appropriate levels-based measurement and alignment between theory and data are relatively strong areas of achievement for the articles within Leadership Quarterly. Multi-level data analysis techniques are used in less than one-fifth of all articles. Although there is room for improvement, there is evidence that Leadership Quarterly is a premier outlet for levels-based leadership research. Given the increasing complexity of organizational science with regard to groups, teams and collectives, Leadership Quarterly has an opportunity to model for organizational research on how to build and test complicated multi-level theories and models.     

组织邻近和组织背景对组织合作创新地理距离的影响

地理邻近与创新的关系是多年来学术界一直关注的热点,但地理邻近对创新影响机理的研究仍存在不足。基于组织合作视角,在分析地理邻近对组织合作创新直接作用机理的基础上,选取2006年至2011年中国钢铁产业的发明专利作为研究样本,采用最小二乘法和序列逻辑回归方法实证研究组织邻近和组织背景对组织合作创新所跨越的地理距离的影响,分析组织合作创新的地理邻近程度与组织邻近和组织背景之间的关系,探讨地理邻近对组织合作创新的间接作用机理。研究结果表明,组织合作创新的地理邻近程度随组织邻近程度和组织背景的变化而变化。组织邻近程度越高,组织合作创新的地理邻近程度越低,组织合作创新跨越距离越大。3种组织背景不同的合作创新类型中,学术机构合作创新的地理邻近程度最高,合作创新跨越的距离最小;产学研合作创新次之,距离居中;企业合作创新最低,距离最大。     

债务保守、投资机会与中国上市公司资本投资

国内对于财务保守行为的研究,均是从产品市场竞争角度展开的。然而,这些研究并没有得出一致的结论。公司的财务保守目的,是给公司提供一定程度的财务灵活性,便于公司在未来使用这种灵活性。当公司遇到有利的投资机会时,具有这种灵活性的公司能够抓住有利的投资机会,进行资本投资。运用1999-2008年中国上市公司的不平衡面板数据,采用动态面板模型进行了实证分析。实证结论表明:公司的财务保守行为与公司未来的投资机会高度显著相关;公司的财务保守行为与公司未来的资本投资高度显著相关。同时,动态面板回归结果也显示,公司的财务保守行为和公司的投资支出都具有时间连续性,与其滞后项高度显著相关。     

企业核心员工生态位构建行为的探索性研究

本研究通过文献评述,分析了目前核心员工相关研究视角的先天缺陷,并首次将生态位构建理论导入核心员工的研究中;通过开放式和封闭式问卷调查,采用关键事件法、探索性分析和验证性分析方法,建构了7维度的核心员工生态位构建行为测量工具:职业忠诚行为、自我发展行为、创新行为、进谏行为、协调沟通行为、助人行为和组织忠诚行为;进一步研究发现,核心员工生态位构建行为与工作绩效和组织承诺呈现不同强弱的正相关。     

Quality of Service Based Pricing Schemes for Content Sharing in Peer‐to‐Peer Networks

In this paper, we study quality‐of‐service (QoS) based pricing schemes that serve as incentive mechanisms to induce sharing behaviors in Peer‐to‐Peer (P2P) networks. We incorporate operational QoS metrics into users’ utility functions and demonstrate how they affect individual users’ content sharing decisions. Using a game‐theoretic model, our study reveals how organizations respond to the changes of operational QoS metrics in their design of pricing schemes for various business objectives at different stages of network evolution. Our results show that a higher upload capacity can foster rational sharing to start when the network is small; however, it also discourages sharing behaviors when the network becomes large. In order to induce a socially optimal behavior, a pricing scheme will not charge users for requesting content while compensating them for sharing content. Such compensation is found to increase faster with the network size when the network is large. In order to maximize the profit of a monopolistic provider, however, a pricing scheme will charge content requests with a positive price while providing less compensation to sharing users compared to the socially optimal scheme. When the network size is small, such compensation can be even negative, which implies that a monopolistic provider discourages content sharing when the network is small, but encourages it when the network becomes larger. In addition, we find that more information about peer upload capacity discourages peers to share.     

信息通信技术对产业结构优化的影响分析

随着信息通信技术(简称信息技术)在经济高质量发展中作用突显,探索信息技术在产业结构优化中的影响路径,将成为我国经济结构性改革的重要推动力.本研究基于中国30个省(直辖市、自治区)2003-2017年的数据,首先测算了省际信息技术的生产性资本存量;其后,以鲍莫尔效应的发生机制为切入口,建立动态面板数据GMM模型,从理论和经验两个层面揭示信息技术对产业结构的优化路径.结果 发现:(1)总体上,信息技术对各地区的产业结构调整有明显的投资优化效应,但这种投资效应具有分位异质性,如果信息技术的资本规模基数过低,就不能对产业结构优化产生显著影响.(2)信息技术投资对不同产业发展的影响不同.信息技术投资能有效促进第三产业发展,但在第二产业发展中存在投资不足与投资低效问题,阻碍了第二产业发展.(3)伴随不同的工业化阶段,信息技术投资在不同地区的影响存在显著差异.其中,信息技术的投资优化效应在东部地区呈现明显的线性增长特征;在西部地区呈"U型"特征,在中部地区仅仅是工业化后期阶段才呈现正向影响.最后,在此结论基础上提出相关政策建议.     

动态尾部金融网络结构与传染性度量

基于Lasso高维分位数回归模型,本文构建了中国金融系统的尾部网络结构,并定义了总体网络以及行业间、行业内和金融机构间等多层金融网络的尾部风险传染度,解构其传染机制与关联特征,评估各机构双向系统重要性(接收端和发射端)。同时,本文提出了一个最优滚动窗宽选择标准方法,以优化滚动样本技术下的动态网络结构。结果表明,所有层级尾部风险传染效应(总体系统、行业间、行业内和机构间)在经济金融极端困境时期,呈现明显增强及剧烈震荡特征,2015年中国股灾期间尤甚。跨行业传染效应日益严峻,银行与保险间表现出较强关联性,房地产机构与其他金融机构间均表现出较高传染性,跨业监管值得关注。接收与发射最多尾部风险传染的金融机构仍然是银行与证券类机构。系统中超过50%的金融机构倾向于接收风险传染,一旦出现系统性冲击,整个金融系统的稳定性将遭受重创,因此,应加强此类机构应对外界冲击的能力。此外,基于新滚动窗宽选择标准法的动态模型的估计性能明显优于传统方法。研究结论有助于理解中国金融系统的网络结构和传染机制,对宏观审慎监管体系的建立提供了依据。     

Centrality Asymmetry and Partner Complementarity as Influences on Alliance Dissolution

Research on interfirm alliances indicates that partner firms’ asymmetry in network centrality increases the likelihood of alliance dissolution because it gives rise to a power imbalance and opportunism in the partnership. We contend that this view of centrality asymmetry does not consider the binding force that network resource complementarity can provide in an alliance, which motivates partners to ally for the long term. We propose that centrality asymmetry can have both divisive and cohesive forces in an alliance, which – when considered together – lead to a prediction that centrality asymmetry has a U‐shaped relationship with alliance dissolution. Moderate levels of asymmetry lead to lower rates of dissolution than high and low levels of asymmetry. The degree of cooperation between partners and the degree of external competition reduce the effects of centrality asymmetry on alliance dissolution because they mitigate power imbalances while encouraging partners to strengthen the alliance to withstand competitive challenges.